2011 Valero Alamo Bowl Preview

               Every so often, you have a college football program that is able to a have a special talent that comes into the program and ends up having a memorable four years.  That player can make a huge difference in the direction of the program and may set the foundation for years to come.  You will get to see one of those players in this year’s Valero Alamo Bowl.

               

               The special player’s team had a wild season all year long.  Baylor played in wild, high-scoring ballgames every week.  They started the year with a 50-48 win over TCU at home and, in fact, there was only one game this year that involved the Bears that had under 50 points combined.  The three losses in four games that Baylor suffered in the middle portion of their schedule had their differences.  The loss on the road at Kansas State was cruel as they dropped a 1 point decision to the Wildcats, 36-35.  But then, the back to back blowout losses to Texas A&M and Oklahoma State by a combined 72 points had them reeling.  Baylor, however, got back on the winning track with a win over Missouri and ended the season with 5 straight wins including victories over both Oklahoma and Texas.  They ended up with nine victories on the season and are playing in their second consecutive bowl game for the first time since 1991-1992.

                

               Baylor’s opponent in the Alamo Bowl, Washington, had an up and down year.  The first half of the season started off very well as the Huskies won five of their first six games with the only loss on the road at Nebraska.  The second half of the season was almost the complete opposite of the start.  They won just 2 of their last 6 games with the only wins coming against Arizona and Washington State.  Regardless of that, they were able to win seven games this season and are playing in their second consecutive bowl game after missing out on the postseason from 2003-2009.

                

              So, how many points will be scored by two teams that have a tendency to do so?  Read on for the preview of the 2011 Valero Alamo Bowl.

              

              Baylor offense vs. Washington defense: The special player and the headliner for this year’s Alamo Bowl is the 2011 Heisman Trophy winner, Baylor QB Robert Griffin III.  He has produced in one of the best offenses in the country all year long.  He was first in the nation in passing efficiency and second in total offense at almost 387 yards per game.  He was the catalyst for an offense that was 2^nd in the nation in total offense at over 570 yards per game.  They also averaged more than 43 points per contest, which was 6^th best this year.  But while Griffin has been the main reason for the Bears success, there are pieces around him that have had great years as well.  WR Kendall Wright was 8^th in receptions per game and was 2^nd in receiving yards at 131 yards per game.  RB Terrance Ganaway finished 15^th in the country in rushing, averaging over 112 yards per game.  This is going to be a major problem for the Washington defense.  It has struggled all year long, giving up more 33 points and 426 yards per game this season.  They also have been horrible defending the pass, as they ended up as one of the five worst pass defenses in the nation, allowing almost 284 yards per game through the air.  The advantage goes to Baylor here in a big way.

Edge: Baylor

                Washington offense vs. Baylor defense: The Husky offense started the season on a roll as they scored at least 30 points in their first six games this year, including 52 in a win over Colorado.  But then, they struggled in the second half of the year, as the only times they scored more than 21 points were in their two victories mentioned above.  Keith Price has been the man under center for UW and he has been efficient in running the offense, finishing 12^th in the nation in passing efficiency.  He has help from RB Chris Polk, who averaged almost 112 yards per game on the ground.  That has added up to more 31 points and 392 yards per contest.  They’ll have a chance to put points up as well because as good as Baylor’s offense has been this season, the Bears defense has been just as bad this season.  They finished in the bottom 20 nationally in all four major defensive categories (Rushing, Passing, Scoring, and Total) and they only gave up less than 24 points just once this season in a shutout win over FCS Stephen F. Austin.  Washington will have their chances to move the ball on offense and must take advantage of it.

Edge: Washington

                Special Teams: Washington has the advantage here as they have one of the better punters in the nation in Kiel Rasp, who averaged over 45 yards per punt this season.  They also have been solid returning kickoffs this season as they are averaging almost 24 yards per return.  Baylor has had similar struggles on special teams as well this year, finishing in the bottom 20 in punting and kickoff returns.  That puts more pressure on the Bears offense to stay productive and minimize the opportunities to give the ball back to the other team.

Edge: Washington

                Coaching: Art Briles has done a remarkable job in resurrecting a dormant Baylor program.  After a successful stint at Houston, he had four wins in each of his first two seasons in Waco.  The turnaround started in 2010 as he led the Bears to their first winning season since 1995.  The growth has continued this season as they are just one win away from their first 10 win season in 31 years.  Steve Sarkisian is how in his third season at Washington as is still waiting to have a breakthrough season.  He has led Washington to two straight bowl games, but is only one game over .500 for his career.  He could use a victory here as a springboard for the program into 2012.

Edge: Baylor

                This and That:  This could turn out to be a big advantage for Baylor.  The Bears fans got a chance to travel to an in-state bowl last year and they’ll get a chance to have another big crowd in San Antonio.  I’ll also be interested how full the Alamodome will be with a team from Texas and the Heisman Trophy winner playing in this year’s edition of the game.

                So, what will happen in the 2011 Valero Alamo Bowl: This has all the makings of a track meet.  It features two teams that can move the football playing indoors on a fast surface facing bad defenses.  Baylor’s offense has carried the team all season long and there’s no reason that should not continue here.  Washington’s only chance is to match Baylor score for score and they just haven’t been consistent enough to give them a chance in this game.  This will be the final showcase for Robert Griffin III before he goes on to play on Sundays this fall and he will go out a winner.

Line: Baylor by 9

The Sports Mac Prediction: Baylor 63, Washington 42

2011 Champs Sports Bowl Preview

                There are at least a couple of occasions every bowl season were you end up with a big match-up before New Year’s Day.  Whether it’s a game that features two programs that have had very good seasons or there are two big names in college football getting together, these games are usually one of the highlights of Christmas Week.  The latter scenario is exactly what we have for this year’s Champs Sports Bowl.  Florida State and Notre Dame renew a rivalry that has had some signature moments including the Game of the Century in 1993 to the great match-up in the 1996 Orange Bowl.  The announcement of this game has helped the Champs Sports bowl immensely as it is sold out for the first time in its history.

                

                Florida State was considered to be one of the favorites for the ACC title this season and they cruised to the first two victories.  But then came the stretch that put a damper on the season.  The Seminoles suffered consecutive loss to Oklahoma, Clemson, and Wake Forest and found themselves under .500 approaching the halfway mark.  They then found their stride and rolled off five wins in a row.  But a tough home loss to Virginia in their ACC finale gave them their fourth defeat on the season.  However, they did manage to win eight games and are playing in their 32^nd straight bowl game.

                 

                Notre Dame got off to the opposite start of Florida State this year.  There was the shocking home loss to South Florida in a game that was delayed twice by storms and then came the blown lead against Michigan in the first ever night game in Ann Arbor.  The Fighting Irish then started to find their footing and won four straight games against teams that made bowl games this season.  Then came the latest chapter in the rivalry with USC.  A 14 point loss at home meant no BCS game this season, but Notre Dame ran off another four wins in a row before losing the regular season finale at Stanford.  The Fighting Irish also won eight games this season and are playing in their 2^nd straight bowl game.

                 

               So, who will win the first meeting between these two storied programs since 2003?  Read on for the preview of the 2011 Champs Sports Bowl.

               

               Florida State offense vs. Notre Dame defense: The Seminoles offense has struggled for most of the season, finishing just 75^th nationally in total offense.  They especially had problems running the ball, averaging just 118 yards per game.  E.J. Manuel is the man under center and he’s been the main catalyst this season, finishing in the Top 20 in passing efficiency.  They have had to throw the ball a lot with so many problems in the running game this season.  Rodney Smith and Christian Green are the main targets for Manuel and will need to be on their games to help out the offense.  The Notre Dame defense has been fairly good all season and have given up more than 30 points just three times and managed to hold Stanford to 28 points in the regular season finale.  This looks to be a fairly even match-up and whoever can make a couple of big plays will get the advantage.

Edge: Even

                Notre Dame offense vs. Florida State defense: Notre Dame’s offense has had an up and down season.  They did score more than 30 points in half of their games, but there were struggles as well.  They managed just 15 points in the win over Pittsburgh, 17 in the loss to USC, and only 16 in the win over Boston College.  Tommy Rees has won the QB battle and is entrenched as the starter.  Cierre Wood and Jonas Gray are the two headed attack running the ball and Michael Floyd has been the star on offense averaging almost 8 catches and 90 yards receiving per game this season.  The Florida State defense is the unit to watch in this game, however.  One of the best defenses in the country, the Seminoles are 2^nd in rushing defense, 4^th in scoring defense, and 6^th in total defense.  They’re averaging 3 sacks per game and almost 8 tackles for loss per game.  This is going to be a major challenge for the Notre Dame offense and they might have to play their best game of the season to have a chance to win this game.

Edge: Florida State

                Special Teams: Florida State has a big advantage here in this area and it starts with the best punter in the country.  Shawn Powell led the nation in punting at 47 yards per kick.  K Dustin Hopkins finished tied for 9^th in field goals per game and Greg Reid finished just outside the Top 15 in punt returns.  The Seminoles also finished just outside the Top 20 in kickoff returns as well.  The best that Notre Dame can counter with is KR George Atkinson III, who was 15^th nationally at more than 27 yards per return.  FSU is the much better unit here and could play a huge role in this ballgame.

Edge: Florida State

                Coaching:  Jimbo Fisher has done a nice job in his two seasons at the helm of Florida State.  He has won at least 8 games in each season and led the team to two straight bowl games.  He is already 10 games over .500 and looks like a worthy successor to Bobby Bowden in the years to come.  Brian Kelly is in his 2^nd year at Notre Dame and is trying to continue his success at every stop in his career.  He’s won conference championships at Central Michigan and Cincinnati and while he has no conference to win here, he’s had the Fighting Irish close to BCS bids his first two seasons.  He has the advantage here by having more experience and knows how to get his team ready for a bowl game, with this being his seventh in a row.

Edge: Notre Dame

                This and That: As mentioned above, this will be a sellout for the first time in Champs Sports Bowl history and the majority of fans should be from Tallahassee.  It’s only a four hour drive and there should be plenty of garnet and gold in the stands.  For all of the problems Notre Dame had winning bowls in the past, they’ve won their last two and are playing the 2^nd straight opponent from Florida after defeating Miami (Fla.) in last year’s Sun Bowl.  The Seminoles also have a bowl winning streak on the line in this game, as they have won their last three bowl contests.

                So, what will happen in the 2011 Champs Sports Bowl: This game really comes down to the Notre Dame offense and if it can move the ball against a very good Florida State defense.  This will probably be the best defense the Fighting Irish will have faced this year and if they struggle, it might be too much to ask the ND defense to keep them in the ballgame. Throw in one or two big plays by the FSU special teams and this will end up being a somewhat comfortable victory for the in-state school.

Line: Florida State by 3

The Sports Mac Prediction: Florida State 31, Notre Dame 17

2011 Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl Preview

                These must be interesting times for the folks who run the Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl.  In the past, this match-up usually had paired two of the top teams from the Big 12 and Pac-12 and it was one of the bowls to watch in between Christmas and New Year’s Day.  But then a couple of years ago, a lot of the BCS conferences started to shift when their respective teams would end the season and, unfortunately, the Holiday Bowl was one of the teams that got the short straw.  While they still have teams from the Big 12 and Pac-12 participating, the teams are further down each conference’s pecking order.  For this year, the Holiday Bowl features two teams that had up and down seasons.

                 

               California certainly got 2011 off to a great start winning their first three games, including a 3 point overtime win in their Pac-12 opener on the road at Colorado.  Then the rough patch came and the Golden Bears lost four of their next five with blowout conference losses at Pac-12 champion Oregon, home against USC, and at Pac-12 South champion UCLA.  But, California was able to right the ship and finish strong, winning three of their last four games with the only loss being on the road at rival Stanford.  That finish allowed the Golden Bears to finish the season with seven wins and participate in the Holiday Bowl for the third time and the first time since 2006.

               

                It’s been a rough couple of years for the University of Texas.  After playing in the 2010 BCS Championship Game, the Longhorns had a big letdown the following season, winning only five games and missing bowl eligibility.  This season got off to a fine start as they won their first four games.  Then came the Red River Shootout with Oklahoma. It turned into a nightmare as the Sooners ran all over the Cotton Bowl and destroyed Texas by 38 points.  As the Longhorns were reeling from that loss, red hot Oklahoma State came to Austin and walked out with a 12 point victory.  That set the tone for the second half of the season as Texas was a mediocre 3-3 and capped the regular season by getting blown out again, this time at Baylor.  Regardless, the Longhorns won seven games and are back in the postseason.  This will be the Longhorns fifth Holiday Bowl and first visit here since 2007.

                 

                So, who will win their eighth game of the season and carry momentum into 2012?  Read on for the preview of the 2011 Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl.

                 

               California offense vs. Texas defense: California’s offense has been fairly good all season long.  They have been able to move the ball and score points, averaging almost 420 yards and just under 30 points per game this season.  But they did struggle in that bad stretch in the middle of the year mentioned above, when they scored just 38 points in those three defeats.  Zach Maynard is the man under center and he has been fairly effective accounting for 245 yards of total offense per game, which was 41^st nationally.  He has help from RB Isi Sofele, who ran for over 105 yards per game, and WR Keenan Allen, who had 105 receiving yards per game.  They’ll be facing a Texas defense that has been very good all season.  They finished in the Top 15 in rushing defense, pass efficiency defense, and scoring defense.  They have had bad outings this year, including the regular season finale.  They’ll be looking for redemption and will want to prove that this is one of the better defenses in the country.

Edge: Texas

                Texas offense vs. California defense: The Longhorns have been well balanced all season, but that can be deceiving.  They averaged just over 400 yards per game and while they ran for over 210 yards per game, they were only able to throw for 194 yards per contest, which was only 85^th nationally.  David Ash and Case McCoy have both had shots at quarterback and McCoy seems to have become the man to lead the offense and there have been growing pains.  The Longhorns have had a running back by committee this season led by Malcolm Brown and Joe Bergeron.  Jaxon Shipley is the leading receiver, but he is under five receptions per game.  California’s defense has been fairly good finishing just outside the Top 25 in total defense.  But they have had a tendency to give up points as the Golden Bears have given up more the 30 points seven times this season.  This match-up is too close to call as both units have been OK and nothing more.

Edge: Even

                Special Teams: Each team has an area of strength here that they’ll be looking to exploit in San Diego.  For California, they have had one of the stronger kicking games in the nation this year.  P Bryan Anger averaged over 44 yards per kick and K Giorgio Tavecchio finished tied for 11^th in FG per game.  For Texas, they finished 8^th in the nation in punt returns and 18^th in kickoff returns.  Either unit has a chance to make a big impact in what should be a tight contest.

Edge: Even

                Coaching: Jeff Tedford has California back to his winning ways after a down year in 2010 and he has now guided the Golden Bears to their 8^th bowl game in his 10 seasons, winning five of them.  Mack Brown has got Texas back to a winning season after suffering his first losing one in his 13 seasons as the head Longhorn.  He is still 100 games over .500 in Austin and has won two-thirds of the games in his career.

Edge: Texas

                This and That: Both teams should be motivated as they are back in the postseason after missing out last year.  While California fans have the shorter trip, the Longhorns might have the crowd advantage as Texas fans will show up in droves no matter where the team plays.  Texas might also have motivation because with a good performance here, they could end the season in the final Top 25, something they could not say last season.

Edge: Texas

                So, what will happen in the 2011 Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl: While California won three of its last four and Texas lost three of its last four, the Longhorns are the better team here this night.  While it won’t be an easy victory, Texas will continue its climb back toward the top of the Big 12 and use this game as a springboard for 2012.

Line: Texas by 3

The Sports Mac Prediction: Texas 24, California 17

2011 Military Bowl Preview

                Every year, there are bowl games that have a reputation of being offensive showcases.  Even though this is only going to be the fourth Military Bowl, the game in the nation’s capital is becoming one of those games that are just fun to watch.  The first three contests have had at least 48 points combined between the two teams and last year’s game had 71 points scored.  This year’s edition of the Military Bowl features two very potent offenses and there is the potential for a lot of yards and points at RFK Stadium.

                 

                Air Force, as usual, has one of the best rushing attacks in the nation.  While the offense is very productive, that did not translate into wins in the first half of this season. They started the year 3-4 with the wins coming against FCS teams South Dakota and Tennessee State and they just got by Navy by a point in overtime after blowing an 18 point 4^th quarter lead.  But things came together in the latter part of the year.  Air Force won four of its last five games with the only loss to bowl bound Wyoming.  That got them to seven wins and playing in their fifth consecutive bowl game.

                 

               Toledo has a very potent offense as well.  But they got off to a worse start than Air Force did this season.  The Rockets lost 3 of their first 4 games with the only win against FCS New Hampshire.  They were much better in Mid-American Conference play, winning 7 of their 8 games.  Unfortunately, the one conference loss was a wild 63-60 loss to eventual MAC champion Northern Illinois that prevented them from winning their division.  Regardless, Toledo racked up eight wins this season and is playing in their second consecutive bowl game.

               

               So, will this be the highest scoring bowl game of the 2011-2012 season?  Read on for the preview of the 2011 Military Bowl.

               

               Air Force offense vs. Toledo defense: As mentioned above, the Falcons had another great year running the ball.  They finished 2^nd in the nation in rushing averaging just over 320 yards per game and they have a great senior leader running the attack.  Tim Jefferson has been the focus of this offense since he took over as the starter.  Asher Clark and Mike DeWitt are the other major contributors in the rushing attack.  When they throw the ball, Jonathan Warzeka and Zack Kauth are the main pass catchers this season.  It will be an interesting battle because the Toledo defense is much better at stopping the run than the pass.  The Rockets finished 28^th in rushing defense, but 109^th in passing defense this season.  They’ll have had time to look at the Air Force attack, so we’ll have to see how much the Falcons could throw early to try and loosen up the defense.

Edge: Air Force

                Toledo offense vs. Air Force defense: As potent as Air Force’s offense was this season, Toledo’s was even better and they did it with balance.  They averaged over 220 yards rushing and 270 yards passing per game this season which led them to have the 8^th best total and scoring offense in the nation.  The Rockets are led by the QB tandem of Terrance Owens and Austin Dantin.  Both of them averaged more than 150 yards of total offense and have kept defenses guessing all year.  The skill positions around them are loaded as well.  RB Adonis Thomas averaged 107 yards per game on the ground and WR Eric Page averaged more than 9 catches and 93 yards receiving per game.  This offense is loaded and will be a big problem for the Air Force defense.  The Falcons were mediocre at best all season and will have a tough challenge trying to keep these Rockets grounded.

Edge: Toledo

                Special Teams: Neither special team unit has been stellar as whole, but one player could prove to make a big difference in the game.  In addition to being Toledo’s leading receiver, Page finished in the Top 20 in punt returns and averaged more than 23 yards per kickoff return.  He can turn the momentum in a game in a hurry and could make a big impact in this contest.

Edge: Toledo

                Coaching: This will be a heck of a debut game for Matt Campbell.  The interim head coach for Toledo after Tim Beckham left for Illinois, he had the interim tag lifted on December 9^th and is now the youngest head coach in FBS at 32.  This is his offense that is on display this year and he’ll get a chance to continue to build from a solid season this year.  Troy Calhoun has done a fine job in his five seasons winning at least eight games in each of the first four.  This is also the fifth straight bowl under Calhoun and they have won two in a row.  He will be in line for a job in a BCS conference if he ever decides if he wants to make that type of move.

Edge: Air Force

                This and That: I’ll be curious to see how full RFK Stadium is for this game.  Neither school is close to the bowl site, so that will probably hold down attendance.  The magic number for Toledo in this game is 30.  They were 1-2 when they scored less than 30 points this season and 7-2 when they scored over 30.  Amazingly, Air Force is 10-10-1 in its bowl history after winning the last two bowl games.

                So, what will happen in the 2011 Military Bowl: This has got an offensive explosion written all over it.  It’s two of the best offenses in the country against a couple of mediocre defenses.  This could be a classic case of who has the ball last wins.  Toledo has the balance on offense and the versatility of Eric Page to pull out the victory.

Line: Toledo by 3

The Sports Mac Prediction: Toledo 52, Air Force 48